A Measured Manifesto for a New Era of Event-Driven Investing

Global markets are driven by discrete events - elections, policy decisions, regulatory changes. These binary moments create opportunities for those who can forecast them with precision. At Measured Uncertainty, we execute on these opportunities through Polymarket, the leading platform for event-based trading.

Our Approach

We combine advanced artificial intelligence with rigorous forecasting methodologies. Our systems process and analyze global information flows in real-time, identifying opportunities across political, economic, and social events. This technological edge, paired with disciplined execution, allows us to capitalize on market inefficiencies as they emerge.

Investment Strategy

We focus exclusively on event contracts with binary outcomes. This creates a pure expression of our forecasting edge, stripped of market noise and correlation risk. Our positions are sized according to precise probability assessments, ensuring optimal capital deployment across opportunities.

Results Over Rhetoric

We don’t claim to predict the future. We identify mathematical edges and execute systematically. Our returns come from thousands of small advantages, accumulated through disciplined trading across a diverse set of global events.

The market for event contracts is expanding rapidly. We are positioned at the forefront of this evolution, with the infrastructure and expertise to capitalize on it at scale.